The overall thesis of Decisive by Chip and Dan Heath is that you make better decisions when you use a process called “WRAP”.
- Widen your options
- Reality test your assumptions
- Attain distance before deciding
- Prepare to be wrong
It’s a really interesting book, I got a lot out of reading it. Some stuff that’s like, oh that does work, and some stuff that gave me a new perspective and caused me to rethink some of how I make decisions. Definitely well worth a read.
Ways to widen assumptions:
- Think about the opportunity cost – for example when considering a 700 vs 1000 stereo, you can also think about it as 700+300 of albums vs 1000 stereo
- Use the “vanishing options” forcing function – you can’t pick any of your current options, so what do you do instead?
- You don’t have to consider too many – even going up to 3 makes a difference. So just think of a couple more to get out of the “do or not” dilemma that leads to the worst decisions.
- Consider both a positive framing (more happy) and a limiting one (less stressed) – they can highlight different things.
- Consider if you can make both options work.
- Look for other people who have solved your problem – what did they do?
- Look for bright spots, what can you build on or take from elsewhere?
- Create a playlist for repeated problem types – “a checklist stops people from making an error; a playlist stimulates new ideas”
- Ladder up via analogies. For instance when designing a swimsuit, the designer looked for “anything that moves fast” and came up with something very creative (and subsequently banned for being too effective) as a result.
When reality testing assumptions:
- Seek out disagreement. E.g. if everyone agrees, end the meeting and reconvene the meeting when people have something to disagree on.
- Ask questions like “what would have to be true for this option to be the very best choice?”
- Consider the opposite of instincts to fight confirmation bias. For instance, if you have a narrative that your partner is selfish, keep a diary of times your partner was kind instead – the opposite of your narrative about them.
- Deliberately make a mistake to challenge an assumption.
- “Trust the average” over assumptions – get reviews for important decisions. Restaurant reviews are a good example, but you can get creative. If you’re thinking about a new job, ask people who work there about their experience.
- if you can’t find the “base rates” for your decision, ask an expert. For instance ask a lawyer what % of cases get settled before trial (rather than how likely you are to win).
- Use a close up to add texture, for instance FDR got people to write to him. He would have his staff aggregate stats for the average, but read a sample of letters himself for color.
- “ooch” – conduct an experiment that moves you forward by testing your idea.
To attain distance before deciding:
- Sleep on it is good advice, but can be insufficient.
- Use the 10/10/10 by Suzie Welch – when faced with a dilemma, ask yourself how will you feel in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years.
- Ask questions that create distance: for instance an Intel CEO at a critical moment asked “what would my successor do?”.
- Ask “what would you advise a friend?” – when we give advice to friends we normally anchor more on the longer term view.
- Remember that loss aversion + mere exposure = status quo bias
Finally, you need to prepare to be wrong:
- “Prospective hindsight seems to spur more insights because it forces us to fill in the blanks between today and a certain future event (as opposed to the slipperier process of speculating about an event that may or may not happen).”
- Focus on predicting a range – be specific about worst case scenario, best case scenario (which can also create problems!) and mid-point.
- Realistic job interviews – be honest about the cons of working a job, especially a difficult one with high turnover; knowing what to expect means people are mentally prepared for setbacks
- Set a trip wire – a decision point that takes you off autopilot – often these can be concrete (time, dollars, other metric) but can also be important to use the feeling that something is off – nurses and pilots are examples where they are encouraged to use their feelings that something is off to flag for deeper investigation.
Honor core principles is not a lettered entity within the WRAP piece (I think it falls under attaining distance), but I thought this was a really core and relevant insight. It’s not about making the correct decision, because sometimes there is no single correct decision. It’s about making the right decision for you. This was one of my favorite sections, some takeaways:
- Agonizing decisions are often a sign of conflict among your core priorities.
- By identifying and enshrining your core priorities you make it easier to resolve present and future dilemmas.
- To carve out space to pursue core priorities we must go on the offense against lesser priorities